PressEthic

The Iraq War took a major turn in the American press this morning, blazing across the front page of The New York Times was the very real possibility that the U.S. could lose this war, allowing Iraq to spiral into a chaotic abyss.

"To Stand or Fall in Baghdad," Michael Gordon’s analysis is not a straight news piece but it portends a bleak future, which hinges on securing Baghdad. Gordon writes that the strategy is for the military to secure the capital and radiate outward, stabilizing the country. Though the military is cautiously upbeat, Gordon’s tone in the article raises doubts as to whether the plan is realistic, since during three years of American presence violence still rocks Baghdad on a daily basis.

"[M]ilitary commanders here see no plausible alternative to their bedrock strategy to clear violence-ridden neighborhoods of militias, insurgents and arms caches, hold them with Iraqi and American security forces, and then try to win over the population with reconstruction projects, underwritten mainly by the Iraqi government. There is no fall-back plan that the generals are holding in their hip pocket," writes Gordon, adding ominously, "This is it."

If this last ditch plan fails, the future is not clear.

The American military is leading the plan, but the Iraqi Army and police are being called on to root out insurgents and halt sectarian violence.

For Gordon, this is a watershed moment:

'It is a decisive period,' said Maj. Gen. J. D. Thurman, the commander of the Fourth Infantry Division and the senior commander of the American forces in Baghdad.

'They either seize the opportunity or they don’t,' he said. 'If they don’t, then our government is going to have to readjust what we are going to do, and that is not my call.'

In the final analysis, American officers say, much is in Iraqi hands. The American military is looking toward the Maliki government to finally disband the militias and reintegrate them into Iraqi society. It is not clear if the Iraqi government will follow through on such a step since some senior Iraqi officials have said the militias cannot be broken up until the Sunni-based insurgency is brought to heel.

Times columnist Thomas Friedman sees a parallel between Iraq and Vietnam, especially the Tet Offensive. President Bush, when faced with questions about the parallel, agreed.

Tet was a watershed moment for Vietnam. Thereafter, the press became increasingly critical of the war as it continued on its tortured path for several years. Tet signaled to the American public that the U.S. might not win the war. If violence cannot be quelled in Baghdad, Iraq is lost. From Gordon’s piece, America is on the precipice of Tet.